Showing 1 - 10 of 80 Items
The Impact of Ride-Hailing Services on Public Transportation Use: A Discontinuity Regression Analysis
Date: 2017-05-26
Creator: Nicole Sadowsky, Erik Nelson
Access: Open access
- Since 2011, the private ride-hailing companies Uber and Lyft have expanded into more and more US cities. We use regression discontinuity design to examine the impact of Uber and Lyft’s entry on public transportation use in the US’ largest urban areas. In most cases, entry into cities by the two ride-hailing companies was staggered: Uber entered first followed some months later by Lyft. We find that public transportation use increased in an urban area, all else equal, immediately following the first entry. However, we find that the spike in public transportation use after first entry disappeared following the entry of the second company. In fact there is some evidence that monthly public transportation ridership levels fell below their pre-first entry levels. In other words, the joint presence of the two major private ride-hailing services transformed ride-hailing services from a public transportation complement to a public transportation substitute, at least in the studied urban areas. We speculate that the first entrant complemented public transportation use for some in an urban area by solving the “last-mile” problem and by providing a potentially safer option at night when public transportation service has been reduced. However, we speculate the second entrant is likely to have spurred price competition in the urban area’s ride-hailing duopoly market and an increase in ride-hailing car supply. This competitive effect could have tipped the scales, making an entire trip with a ride-hailing service more cost-effective and convenient than splitting a trip between a ride-share company and public transportation.
The distributional impact of a green payment policy for organic fruit
Date: 2019-02-01
Creator: Erik Nelson, John Fitzgerald, Nathan Tefft
Access: Open access
- Consumer spending on organic food products has grown rapidly. Some claim that organics have ecological, equity, and health advantages over conventional food and therefore should be subsidized. Here we explore the distributive impacts of an organic fruit subsidy that reduces the retail price of organic fruit in the US by 10 percent. We estimate the impact of the subsidy on organic fruit demand in a representative poor, middle income, and rich US household using three analytical methods; including two econometric and one machine learning. We do not find strong evidence of regressive redistribution due to our simulated organic fruit subsidy; the poor household’s relative reaction to the subsidy is not much different than the reaction at the other two households. However, the infra-marginal savings from the subsidy tend to be larger in richer households.
Implementing the Optimal Provision of Ecosystem Services
Date: 2013-08-01
Creator: Stephen Polasky, David Lewis, Andrew Plantinga, Erik Nelson
Access: Open access
- Many ecosystem services are public goods whose provision depends on the spatial pattern of land use. The pattern of land use is often determined by the decisions of multiple private landowners. Increasing the provision of ecosystem services, while beneficial for society as a whole, may be costly to private landowners. A regulator interested in providing incentives to landowners for increased provision of ecosystem services often lacks complete information on landowners’ costs. The combination of spatially-dependent benefits and asymmetric cost information means that the optimal provision of ecosystem services cannot be achieved using standard regulatory or payment for ecosystem services (PES) approaches. Here we show that an auction that pays a landowner for the increased value of ecosystem services generated by the landowner’s actions provides incentives for landowners to truthfully reveal cost information, and allows the regulator to implement the optimal provision of ecosystem services, even in the case with spatially-dependent benefits and asymmetric information.
Measuring the Relative Importance of Different Agricultural Inputs to Global and Regional Crop Yield Growth Since 1975
Date: 2016-09-01
Creator: Erik Nelson, Clare Bates Congdon
Access: Open access
- We identify the agricultural inputs that drove the growth in global and regional crop yields from 1975 to the mid-2000s. We find that improvements in agricultural technology, increased fertilizer use, and changes in crop mix around the world explained most of the gain in global crop yields, although impacts varied across the latitude gradient. Climate change over this time period caused yields to be only slightly lower than they would have been otherwise. In some cases cropland extensification had as much of a negative impact on global and regional yields as climate change. To maintain the momentum in yield growth across the globe 1) use of agricultural chemicals and investment in agricultural technology in the tropics must increase rapidly and 2) international trade in agricultural products must expand significantly.
Reference Points, Prospect Theory, and Momentum on the PGA Tour
Date: 2016-06-01
Creator: Daniel F. Stone, Jeremy Arkes
Access: Open access
- Pope and Schweitzer (2011) study predictions of prospect theory for the reference point of par on the current hole in professional golf. We study prospect-theory predictions of three other plausible reference points: par for recent holes, for the round, and for the tournament. A potentially competing force is momentum in quality of play, that is, the hot or cold hand. While prospect theory predicts negative serial correlation in better (worse)-than-average performance across holes, the hot (cold) hand implies the opposite. We find evidence that, for each of the reference points we study, when scores are better than par, hot-hand effects are dominated by prospect-theory effects. These effects can occur via two mechanisms: greater conservatism or less effort. We find evidence that the former (latter) dominates for scores closer to (further from) the reference point. We also find evidence of prospect theory effects (greater risk seeking) when scores are worse than par for the round in Round 1 and of cold-hand effects for scores worse than par for the tournament in Round 3. The magnitudes of some of the joint effects are comparable to those found by Pope and Schweitzer and other related papers. We conclude by discussing how, rather than compete, prospect-theory and cold-hand forces might also cause one another.
Evaluating the Return in Ecosystem Services from Investment in Public Land Acquisitions
Date: 2013-06-11
Creator: Kent Kovacs, Stephen Polasky, Erik Nelson, Bonnie L. Keeler, Derric, Pennington, Andrew J. Plantinga, Steven J. Taff
Access: Open access
- We evaluate the return on investment (ROI) from public land conservation in the state of Minnesota, USA. We use a spatially-explicit modeling tool, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), to estimate how changes in land use and land cover (LULC), including public land acquisitions for conservation, influence the joint provision and value of multiple ecosystem services. We calculate the ROI of a public conservation acquisition as the ratio of the present value of ecosystem services generated by the conservation to the cost of the conservation. For the land scenarios analyzed, carbon sequestration services generated the greatest benefits followed by water quality improvements and recreation opportunities. We found ROI values ranged from 0.21 to 5.28 depending on assumptions about future land use change, service values, and discount rate. Our study suggests conservation is a good investment as long as investments are targeted to areas with low land costs and high service values. © 2013 Kovacs et al.
JUST A BIG MISUNDERSTANDING? BIAS AND BAYESIAN AFFECTIVE POLARIZATION
Date: 2020-02-01
Creator: Daniel F. Stone
Access: Open access
- I present a model of affective polarization—growth in hostility over time between two parties—via quasi-Bayesian inference. In the model, two agents repeatedly choose actions. Each choice is based on a balance of concerns for private interests and the social good. More weight is put on private interests when an agent's character is intrinsically more self-serving and when the other agent is believed to be more self-serving. Each agent Bayesian updates about the other's character, and dislikes the other more when she is perceived as more self-serving. I characterize the effects on growth in dislike of three biases: a prior bias against the other agent's character, the false consensus bias, and limited strategic thinking. Prior bias against the other's character remains constant or declines over time, and actions do not diverge. The other two biases cause actions to become more extreme over time and repeatedly be “worse” than expected, causing mutual growth in dislike, that is, affective polarization. The magnitude of dislike can become arbitrarily large—even when both players are arbitrarily “good” (unselfish). The results imply that seemingly irrelevant cognitive biases can be an important cause of the devolution of relationships, in politics and beyond, and that subtlety and unawareness of bias can be key factors driving the degree of polarization.
Where do the poor live in cities? Revisiting the role of public transportation on income sorting in US urban areas
Date: 2020-06-03
Creator: Erik Nelson
Access: Open access
- Glaeser et al. (2008) argue that the relative distribution of poor and rich households (HHs) in American cities is "strongly" explained by the spatial location of the cities' public transportation (PT) networks. Among their claims: 1) The broad distribution of poor and rich HHs in the typical American city is consistent with a basic monocentric city model that includes commute technology speeds; 2) Poor commuters will overwhelmingly transition from commuting by PT to car if they experience a substantial increase in their HH’s income; 3) areas in American cities that receive new PT infrastructure become poorer over time. Using 2017 data I find empirical evidence that partially or wholly contradicts these three claims. First, as of 2017, the observed concentration of poor HHs in the inner city and rich HHs in the suburbs of the US’ smaller cities cannot be explained by monocentric model that includes commute speeds. Second, as of 2017, significant increases in poor HHs’ incomes were not expected to lead to a "massive shift" towards car commuting in these HHs; most of these poor workers commute by car already. Third, using data from four cities that expanded their light-rail and rapid-bus network in the early 2000s, I find that neighborhoods surrounding new light-rail or rapid-bus stations either saw little change in their income patterns or became slightly richer after station opening. In conclusion, as of 2017, the spatial distribution of HH incomes within American urban areas is not as intricately linked to the location of PT networks as Glaeser et al. (2008) would have us believe. As an addendum to the analysis I add some thoughts on how the COVID-19 pandemic might affect commuting behavior and income distributions within urban areas over the next decade.
The Role of Competition and Patient Travel in Hospital Profits: Why Health Insurers Should Subsidize Patient Travel
Date: 2013-05-01
Creator: Joseph S Durgin
Access: Open access
- This paper explores the effects of patient travel distance on hospital profit margins, with consideration to the effects of travel subsidies on hospital pricing. We develop a model in which hospital agglomeration leads to a negative relationship between profit margins and patient travel distance, challenging the standard IO theory that profit margins are higher for firms with greater distances of customer travel. Using data on patient visits and hospital finances from the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD), we test our theory and confirm that a hospital tends to have less pricing power if it draws patients from beyond its local cluster. We then consider how our results might justify the subsidizing of patient travel by insurers and government payers. Lastly, we present an argument for why the ubiquitous Hirschman-Herfindahl index of market concentration can be robust to owner and system-level hospital cooperation.
Does Productivity Respond to Exchange Rate Appreciations? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation
Date: 2010-12-15
Creator: Yao Tang
Access: Open access
- Although real currency appreciations pose direct difficulties for exporters and import-competing firms as they will face more intense competition, is it possible that such competition spurs firms to improve productivity? To answer this question, the paper first constructs a theoretical model to show how the competitive pressures of currency appreciations induce firms to improve productivity by adopting new technologies. In addition, the model predicts that during appreciations there will be a positive relation between market concentration and improvements in productivity for industries highly exposed to trade, because the marginal benefits of productivity improvement will be bigger for firms with a larger market share. The paper then examines Canadian manufacturing data from 1997 to 2006, and finds evidence consistent with model predictions. I find that growth rates of labor productivity were on average higher during the Canadian dollar appreciation between 2002 and 2006, after controlling for industry characteristics. Within the group of highly traded Canadian industries, the more concentrated ones experienced larger growth in labor productivity.